As expected, the CNDP is not happy about not getting any cabinet positions in PM Muzito's new government line-up. " A violation of the peace deal," they called it in their press statement. Kabila's coalition reacted, saying they had to respect the constitution, implying that they couldn't name anyone to the cabinet from a party which hadn't been elected to parliament.
So will this deeply damage the peace process in the Kivus?
According to a source close to both parties, probably not. Apparently, a fund that officials close to President Kabila set might be used to keep CNDP officers flush with cash, perhaps to compensate for the lack of ministerial finery. PAREC, a registered NGO run by Pasteur Mulunda Ngoy, is currently handing out $50 per weapon collected in their campaign to disarm the civilian population in Masisi and Rutshuru. Mulunda Ngoy is very close to the president (he was a key go between with the FDLR at the beginning of the 1998 war) and has already carried out a controversial disarmament campaign in Katanga province, giving people bicycles for cash. (It caused some militia to fight each other for the bicycles, and one civilian was blown up by a landmine he was bringing in for collection.)
Anyway, apparently there was a meeting in a private house in Goma yesterday, where CNDP officials met with Mulunda and he promised money for General Bosco Taganda and several of his officers. It looks like the CNDP won't go back to war any time soon: they are doing too well with their parallel administration in Masisi and these kinds of deals.
Plus, the tin prices have gone back up again since the commodity crash in 2009. As you can see here, they bubbled towards the end of 2008, only to crawl back slowly. They are now around the level they were in early 2008.